lunes, 22 de octubre de 2012

Radiografía de un ataque de spam

Deconstructing a Twitter spam attack

Data analysis shows the structure of a network can separate true influencers from fake accounts.


Strata - Making Data Work (http://s.tt/1q7Z0)

There has been a lot of discussion recently about the effect fake Twitter accounts have on brands trying to keep track of social media engagement. A recent tweet spam attack offers an instructive example.
On the morning of October 1, the delegates attending the Strata Conference in London started to notice that a considerable number of spam tweets were being sent using the #strataconf hashtag. Using a tool developed by Bloom Agency, with data from DataSift, an analysis has been done that sheds light on the spam attack directed at the conference.
The following diagram shows a snapshot of the Twitter conversation after a few tweets had been received containing the #strataconf hashtag. Each red or blue line represents a connection between two Twitter accounts and shows how information flowed as a result of the tweet being sent. By 11 a.m., individual communities had started to emerge that were talking to each other about the conference, and these can clearly be seen in the diagram.
Strataconf tweeting communities
The diagram below shows a further visualisation, this time after 30 minutes of listening to the conversation. In an organic conversation, developing of its own accord, you would expect to see lots of random connections and a number of communities spread across the network.
Strataconf Twitter conversation: random conversations and communities taking shape
If we zoom into the network to seek out the spammers the tool has identified, we start to see some different patterns, as shown in the diagram below.
Spammers show up on the fringe of the real Twitter conversation
The spammers are not involved in the conversation, but exist on the fringe of the conversation. They aren’t able to get a message directly to the people tweeting about #strataconf, as those accounts don’t follow the spammers, but by putting #strataconf at the beginning of their tweet, the clear intention is that those searching for tweets about the conference will pick up on their content.
If we pull out just those accounts we identify as spammers, we see a far-from-random pattern emerging. These patterns are well known to the researchers at Bloom Agency and are used to train the tool to identify and spot potential spammers. The spammers’ network is too highly organised and shows too much structure. There isn’t enough randomness in this network: it has clearly been generated for a purpose, and likely by a computer.
Spammers show up on the fringe of the real Twitter conversation
By identifying spamming accounts through how much structure they bring to the network, the tool can produce a list of true influencers or a list of true followers, rather than including a list of fake accounts.
For example, at 11:15 on the Monday morning during the conference, a tweet from @MarieBoyd14 was flagged as suspicious. It said:
“#strataconf Can not believe I ran across this kind of http://t.co/79fGWudr”
If you search for @MarieBoyd14 right now, you’ll find the account has been suspended. The account was seemingly suspended within minutes of posting the tweet.
The same shortened URL was posted six times in quick succession, between 11:15:43 and 11:17, before the account was suspended.
The first tweet picked up here, at 11:15:43, was shown as the user’s 78th tweet: the account had not been active for very long. By the time the sixth tweet featuring this shortened URL was observed, the tweet count was up to 93. Even the most prolific of conference tweeters couldn’t manage 15 tweets in less than two minutes, unless their finger got stuck on the “tweet” button.
Another tweet that began with the hashtag was received five seconds after @MarieBoyd14′s, at 11:15:48. The tweet was from @RosalindaKline8. Again, if you search for this account, you’ll find it’s been suspended. The tweet said:
“#strataconf I can’t believe this… Is the real deal? http://t.co/GKc4rnr5″
Although the format of the t.co link is different, this link directs the user to the same domain: the
http://barsa1.free-football.tv domain.
@RosalindaKline8 tweeted this link, with different text, seven times between 11:15 and 11:19. This account fits the same profile as the @MarieBoyd14 account, where the account is relatively new, posts up to 100 tweets very quickly, and is then suspended.
Two clear patterns emerged. First, the accounts being used to generate the messages were named after females with a number at the end of the account. Next, the messages all started with the conference hashtag.
In a 30-minute period, 424 tweets were recorded from 140 different accounts, at a rate of 14 tweets per minute. On deeper investigation, it was found that all the spammer accounts had IDs starting with 85613, suggesting the accounts had all been created around the same time. The accounts were all seemingly suspended within a few minutes of the last tweet being sent.
In the 30-minute time period being discussed here, there were 750 tweets recorded, from 306 different accounts, at a rate of 25 tweets per minute. More than half the tweets were from spammers: discounting the spammers, the rate would have been around 10 tweets per minute.
Another link being propagated by these accounts was to the URL: http://yourson999.tk/rivers.php. On investigation, it was found that this site is generating headers with the HTTP 203 response, rather than the 200 or 301 header response we expected. This suggested something unusual was going on. Upon further inspection, it was found that the URL was directing traffic to different end points, seemingly at random. Each time the URL was generating traffic to third-party ecommerce sites, and each time with an affiliate referrer attached. This was likely an attempt to direct traffic to ecommerce websites while securing affiliate referrer fees for the organisation or individual behind the attack.
On the surface, a tweet spam attack may seem like a limited hindrance, but there’s an important repercussion that needs to be considered. The spammers had a big impact on the basic metrics used to measure the spread of the #strataconf hashtag. Without a spam filtration embedded within a social media listening tool, the tool is in danger of giving inflated figures to the organisation using it. If these figures are used by brands to make decisions about future campaigns, the spammers can change the numbers so much that the wrong decisions could be made.
Peter Laflin is Head of Data Insight at Bloom Agency, an integrated marketing agency based in Leeds, UK. Peter is interested in using big data to predict how consumers behave and how predictive modelling can be used to gain a commercial edge.

Strata - Making Data Work (http://s.tt/1q7Z0)

jueves, 18 de octubre de 2012

El libro de la red política 2012


2012 Political Book Network

I have been mapping political book networks since before 2004 U.S. presidential election. These network maps are like a social graph of books.   The data is gathered from Amazon.com -- their list of top political books.  Two books are linked if they were often bought together, or by the same buyer.  These are also-bought pairs -- people who bought this book also bought that book.

During the the 2008 election the political book map reflected the deep divide in the country between conservative (RED) voters and liberal (BLUE) voters.  There were no connections, nor any intermediaries between red and blue books -- each cluster was completely closed off to the other. There was a separate cluster of people reading books on the then new candidate -- Obama, but they were not interested in reading/purchasing other political books (upper left corner of network map below).

2008 Political Book Network Map


I expected a similar pattern for 2012 -- a big chasm between right and left.  I thought the map would show each group honing up on their side's talking/debating points and ignoring books of non-conforming opinions.  I was surprised, the two clusters in October 2012 were connected by several books!  The hub in the center of the network, with spokes to many blue and red books, is The Price of Politics by Bob Woodward.  Woodward is viewed as a center-right journalist, and this book is about politics in general, so it makes sense that both sides would be reading his usually excellent prose.  No Easy Day, by one of the Navy Seals that took out bin Laden reads more like a novel, than a history book, attracting readers from all political persuasions.

The third bridging book was a surprise! The Little Blue Book is intended for a progressive audience -- it is a handbook for how to argue effectively with the right wing.  So, you would expect it to be firmly in the center of the dense blue cluster, right?  Wrong!  It has both blue and red readers!  I checked all editions of the books -- hardback, paperback and Kindle.  For the Kindle version, The Little Blue Book was connected (also bought) with other blue books, as expected.  It was with the paperback edition where I was surprised -- 4 of the first 10 also-bought books were red books!  Amazon shows their also-boughts by decreasing count/volume, therefore there were many instances of readers of certain red books were buying The Little Blue Book.  Why is this so?  Maybe the right wing is trying to understand the left wing and reading their blue handbook -- similarly to how they read the far left book Rules for Radicals during the 2008 election campaign.  

2012 Political Book Network Map


This year we also have books about the candidates -- their biographies and positions on major issues.  Obama has the same set of books as last election, Romney has his No Apology series, and Romeny's running mate is written up in the Young Guns book.  Potential voters appear to be reading books about both of the candidates -- Amazon readers are buying books about Romney and Obama together!  See books in upper left frame (2012 Candidate biographies) above.  

Another pattern is different in 2012 than in 2008. Now, people reading about the candidates, are also reading other political books.  The pattern is positive for Romney -- people reading about him are reading other red books -- not so, for Obama.  People reading his positive biographies and position books are also reading polemics attacking Obama.  The most influential anti-Obama book in the above network is Obama's America -- it is read by potential voters who are reading about both Obama and Romney.  See the link patterns in the upper left corner of the above diagram.

Even though the two book networks are connected, we still have a polarized voter base -- those are two strongly defined communities.  Running one of the network metrics from InFlow software, reveals two tightly defined clusters.  The E/I Ratio (External/Internal) is near -1.0 for both the blue and red groups indicating two exclusionary communities.  Polarization persists in America.

Can we use these network maps to predict the election?  Probably not.  The main insight I get from these maps is that the 2008 election provided a more clear cut choice for voters.  Although supporters of each candidate today would also say the choice is clear this time around (they always say that), the data does not support that. This time some readers are examining books from both sides... are these that small percentage of undecided voters who will likely decide this close election?  I bet each campaign would love to know who these Amazon readers are... and they may want to know each other!

Que noticias viajan vía Twitter


BBC vs. Wired: Whose news travels on Twitter?



U. ARIZONA (US) —News from BBC, Mashable, and the New York Times has the maximum reach on Twitter, according to an analysis of a dozen news organizations.


Researchers tracked what happened to a news article after it was tweeted by a news organization. They rendered the data they collected from each organization visually as images showing how the news is diffused. The network visualizations appear something like fireworks, with dots representing individual twitter users and cascade streams from those dots depicting retweets. (Credit: University of Arizona)


Sudha Ram, a professor of management at the University of Arizona, used network analysis to gauge how news agencies use Twitter to share news and how that news spreads via retweets.
Ram, who recently presented her findings at the International Workshop on Business Applications of Social Network Analysis in Istanbul, examined, over a six-month period, the Twitter activity of 12 major news organizations focused on US news, global news, technology news, or financial news.

The Twitter activity network for the New York Times shows a high number of users participating in long chains of tweeeting and retweeting. (Credit: University of Arizona)

The Twitter activity network for Reuters shows a high number of users posting direct retweets of news agencies’ tweets. (Credit: University of Arizona)
All of the agencies selected—the New York Times, Washington Post, BBC, NPR, Reuters, Guardian, Forbes, Financial Times, Mashable, Arstechnica, Wired, and Bloomberg—regularly share news articles on Twitter.
Ram and doctoral student Devi Bhattachary tracked what happened to a news article after it was tweeted by a news organization. Together, they looked at how many people retweeted, or reposted, the article on their own Twitter feeds, then how many times it was subsequently retweeted from those accounts and so forth.
They were then able to evaluate the volume and extend of spread of an article on Twitter, as well as its overall lifespan.
“The goal for a news agency is to have a lot of people reading and following your articles,” says Ram, who is also a professor of computer science. “What we’ve done is use network analysis, which is quite different from just looking at the total number of tweets or total number of retweets. You’re starting to see, over time, how information is spreading.”
Ram and Bhattacharya rendered the data they collected from each organization visually as images showing how the news is diffused. The network visualizations appear something like fireworks, with dots representing individual twitter users and cascade streams from those dots depicting retweets.
The images reveal different diffusion patterns for the different agencies, which can provide clues to those organizations about how their news is spreading and what they might want to focus on to be successful, Ram says.
“This gives them good feedback, and it’s kind of a performance report for them,” Bhattacharya adds. “It gives them an idea about the reading habits of people online and how they like to consume news.”

Of the organizations analyzed, BBC had the maximum reach in terms of affected users and retweet levels. BBC articles also had the highest chance of survival on Twitter, with 0.1 percent of articles surviving, through continual retweets, for three or more days.
The BBC’s high numbers were likely due in large part to the fact that the main “bbcnews” Twitter account also is supported by two other agency accounts—”bbcbreaking” and “bbcworld”—Ram notes.
The New York Times and Mashable had the second highest reach. Articles from Forbes, Wired, and Bloomberg had the shortest Twitter lifespans.
Overall, Ram says the data showed that articles on Twitter dissipate fairly quickly, with retweeting typically ending between 10 and 72 hours after an article is originally shared.
The Twitter study is a jumping off point for further research into how news is disseminated through various social media platforms, Ram adds. In December, Ram will present a follow-up paper at the Workshop on Information Technologies and Systems in Florida on the importance of Twitter-follower engagement for news organizations, as opposed to volume of followers.
“The term ‘social media’ refers to a lot of things. The first thing people think about is Facebook and then Twitter, but it’s so much more than that,” Ram explains. “It’s really all the various forums—the blogs, photo sharing sites, video sharing sites, microblogging, social bookmarking like Digg, Delicious and Reddit, and so on.”
Ram says she hopes to do more extensive research on news sharing and develop partnerships with news agencies to help them answer specific questions about their social media practices and performance.
“The idea is really to see if we can make some predictions,” Ram says. “What are some attributes of these networks that will help us make predictions? Is it number of followers? Is it engagement of followers?
“Is it what time you tweet? Is it who else is tweeting at the same time? Which are the more useful attributes that will help us predict, and therefore will help us give organizations suggestions on how to be more effective in spreading their news?
“Because ultimately their goal is more people reading their articles and talking about them.”

viernes, 28 de septiembre de 2012

Cuando las redes enredan


When Networks Network
Once studied solo, systems display surprising behavior when they interact







Half a dozen times each night, your slumbering body performs a remarkable feat of coordination.
During the deepest throes of sleep, the body’s support systems run on their own timetables. Nerve cells hum along in your brain, their chitchat generating slow waves that signal sleep’s nether stages. Yet, like buses and trains with overlapping routes but unsynchronized schedules, this neural conversation has little to say to your heart, which pumps blood to its own rhythm through the body’s arteries and veins. Air likewise skips into the nostrils and down the windpipe in seemingly random spits and spats. And muscle fluctuations that make the legs twitch come and go as if in a vacuum. Networks of muscles, of brain cells, of airways and lungs, of heart and vessels operate largely independently.
Every couple of hours, though, in as little as 30 seconds, the barriers break down. Suddenly, there’s synchrony. All the disjointed activity of deep sleep starts to connect with its surroundings. Each network — run via the group effort of its own muscular, cellular and molecular players — joins the larger team.
This change, marking the transition from deep to light sleep, has only recently been understood in detail — thanks to a new look at when and how the body’s myriad networks link up to form an übernetwork.
“As I go from one state to another, immediately the links between the physiological systems change,” says Plamen Ivanov, a biophysicist at Boston University. “It is quite surprising.”
And it’s not just in bodies. Similar syncing happens all the time in everyday life. Systems of all sorts constantly connect. Bus stops pop up near train stations, allowing commuters to hop from one transit network to another. New friends join your social circle, linking your network of friends to theirs. Telephones, banks, power plants all come online — and connect online.
A rich area of research has long been devoted to understanding how players — whether bodily organs, people, bus stops, companies or countries — connect and interact to create webs called networks. An advance in the late 1990s led to a boom in network science, enabling sophisticated analyses of how networks function and sometimes fail. But more recently investigators have awakened to the idea that it’s not enough to know how isolated networks work; studying how networks interact with one another is just as important. Today, the frontier field is not network science, but the science of networks of networks.
“When we think about a single network in isolation, we are missing so much of the context,” says Raissa D’Souza, a physicist and engineer at the University of California, Davis. “We are going to make predictions that don’t match real systems.”
Like their single-network counterparts, networks of networks show up everywhere. By waking up in the morning, going to work and using your brain, you are connecting networks. Same when you introduce a family member to a friend or send a message on Facebook that you also broadcast via Twitter. In fact, anytime you access the Internet, which is supported by the power grid, which gets its instructions via communications networks, you are relying on interdependent systems. And if your 401(k) lost value during the recent recession, you’re feeling the effects of such systems gone awry.
Findings so far suggest that networks of networks pose risks of catastrophic danger that can exceed the risks in isolated systems. A seemingly benign disruption can generate rippling negative effects. Those effects can cost millions of dollars, or even billions, when stock markets crash, half of India loses power or an Icelandic volcano spews ash into the sky, shutting down air travel and overwhelming hotels and rental car companies. In other cases, failure within a network of networks can mean the difference between a minor disease outbreak or a pandemic, a foiled terrorist attack or one that kills thousands of people.
Understanding these life-and-death scenarios means abandoning some well-established ideas developed from single-network studies. Scientists now know that networks of networks don’t always behave the way single networks do. In the wake of this insight, a revolution is under way. Researchers from various fields are rushing to figure out how networks link up and to identify the consequences of those connections.

NETWORK MILESTONESView larger image | A major breakthrough in the study of networks occurred when researchers discovered that a lot of real-world networks take a similar form. Dubbed “small-world,” these single networks are characterized by clustering and shortcuts. Another refinement in thinking is now taking place as attention turns to interacting networks.T. Dubé
Investigators including Ivanov are analyzing a deluge of data to understand how networks cooperate to make bodies function. Other researchers are probing the Earth around them to identify the links that keep the planet in balance. But it’s not all rainbows and butterflies. Much of the recent focus has been on the potential dangers that come with connection. In one landmark study, researchers at Boston University and elsewhere have developed math for explaining the way networks of networks can suddenly break down. Studying the bad along with the good may lead to a sort of “how to” for designing integrated systems that not only perform well in normal times, but also keep working when things go wrong.

Cascades of failure
A series of CNN news clips posted on YouTube highlight the vulnerability of interdependent systems. In what Wolf Blitzer repeatedly reminds the viewer is only an “exercise,” former U.S. government officials convene to respond to a simulated cyberattack. The War of the Worlds–esque report begins with a Russian computer infecting a smartphone with a virus. After jumping to other smartphones, the bug makes its way into U.S. computers. From there it crashes communication networks, which in turn take out power stations. The ensuing blackout shuts down transportation networks. Each failure leads to yet more failures as the effects of a single infection bounce back and forth between systems. Having no control over the Russian computer system and no authority to shut down smartphones, the U.S. government is powerless.
Shlomo Havlin of Bar-Ilan University in Israel sometimes shows portions of these clips during talks he gives on networks of networks. “If you have damage in one system, it can lead to damage in another system,” Havlin says. But he points out that concerns about such rippling damages are not entirely new. Several reports — such as the CNN coverage — have highlighted worries about how fragile interdependent systems might be. “What was not known was a systematic way to study this, a framework,” Havlin says.
He first became interested in the problem when a program reviewer from the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency visited the Boston University physics department in 2009. The agency was funding Havlin and H. Eugene Stanley, along with Boston colleagues Gerald Paul and Sergey Buldyrev, to work on questions plaguing single networks. The reviewer mentioned a new topic that interested the agency: How resilient are interacting networks when something goes amiss? Proposals were due in a couple of weeks. Despite the short time frame, the team, later joined by Bar-Ilan colleague Roni Parshani, decided to tackle the issue.
Overnight Havlin came up with a way of thinking about it. Single networks are typically represented by dots joined by lines. The dots, called nodes, are the players in the network. The lines, called edges or links, represent connections between those players. Havlin’s insight was to connect some of the nodes in one network with nodes in another via a new type of line. His new lines, called dependency links, signal places where a node in one network relies on a node in the other to function — say, a computer that can’t get by without its sole power source. These key dependencies could allow a failure to propagate between systems.
Once Havlin outlined a way of thinking about the problem, Buldyrev worked through the math. It wasn’t simple. He had to use equations to explain each state of each network as the random removal of one node triggered the removal of other nodes. Buldyrev, whom Paul calls “a mathematical genius,” cracked it. Answering the program reviewer’s initial question took only about a week.
“One morning, I came in and Shlomo was — not quite dancing on the table — but he was very, very excited,” Paul says.
In their analysis of connected networks, the researchers found a type of mathematical behavior that couldn’t have been predicted from knowledge of single networks. When a node is removed from a single network, the failure tends to propagate gradually, the network coming apart bit by bit by bit. But removing nodes in a network of networks means the breakdown can occur abruptly. As nodes go offline, the system initially appears to be working properly. But all of a sudden, a threshold is reached. Lose one more node and — poof — the whole thing falls to pieces.
“Even if one more node fails, the network collapses completely,” Havlin says. “It makes the network a much more risky place.”
Stanley likens the single-network scenario to a drunken prisoner trying to escape with a pair of wire clippers. As the prisoner makes random cuts along a fence, a hole develops that gradually gets bigger and bigger. After a little while, maybe, the prisoner can stick an arm through, and with a few more snips, a head. Eventually enough snips may allow the prisoner’s whole body to fit through. But in the case of networks of networks, the prisoner cuts just one or two wires and then appears to hit on a magical one that makes the whole fence disintegrate. The prisoner can walk to freedom.

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BACK-AND-FORTH FAILURESView larger image | When networks depend on other networks, such as a communications network that relies on a power grid, failure can cascade back and forth between the two. This behavior may explain sudden breakdowns in interacting systems. Thus, the effects of an attack on a single node can reduce an übernetwork (above) that starts with 12 operating nodes to just four.Source: S.V. Buldyrev et al/Nature 2010, adapted byT. Dubé
“It’s as if someone threw a switch,” Stanley says. “But there is no switch.”
After tweaking the math and running some simulations, the researchers submitted a paper toNature. Since its publication, in 2010, more than 100 other papers have cited it.
Other teams have also found unexpected behavior in networks of networks. In 2009, D’Souza and a colleague showed that connecting a large portion of nodes in a network of networks takes fewer links than would be required for a similar single network. Other scientists have revealed that imposing travel restrictions may not reduce the spread of an epidemic as much as would be expected because of the interconnected nature of human mobility networks. And in 2008, Italian researchers reported that a power station shutdown led to a failure in the Internet communication network, causing the breakdown of more power stations and triggering an electrical blackout affecting much of Italy. In its Nature paper, the Boston group used this disaster as a real-world example to model how failures can cascade back and forth between networks.
What set the Nature paper apart from the others was that it offered a simple mathematical model to explain real-world phenomena. That finding meshed with others to give network-of-networks science a theoretical foundation.
“They have really figured out the framework of how to think about it,” says Albert-László Barabási of Northeastern University in Boston, who made seminal contributions to studies of single networks. “They came along and said, let me show how you calculate this and what are the consequences of coupling these networks.”
Since the discovery, the Boston cadre — along with a battalion of graduate students — has extended its framework to study the vulnerability of three or more interconnected systems. In another study, the researchers have found that terrorist-caused damage to an important power hub may differ from more arbitrary damage caused by, say, a rat chewing through an electrical wire.
Like a social scene in which all the popular kids hang out together, in some networks well-connected nodes are more likely to link up with other well-connected nodes. Stanley, grad student Di Zhou and colleagues have found that if one network in an interdependent system has this property, dubbed assortativity, then the whole system is more vulnerable to disturbance.
These early findings were unexpected based on studies of solo networks, leaving scientists wondering what other secrets networks of networks might hold. “There are many questions that appear immediately,” Havlin says.
It’s a small world
A similar burst of activity in network science occurred in 1998, after Cornell University’s Steven Strogatz and then-colleague Duncan Watts published a groundbreaking paper, also in Nature. Titled “Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks,” it explained why the world seems so tiny.
At the time, “small-world phenomena” had already gained a degree of notoriety. In the 1960s, psychologist Stanley Milgram showed that a randomly selected person living in Nebraska could be connected via acquaintances to a target person in Massachusetts through just a few (typically six) other people. Students from Albright College in Reading, Pa., made the idea widely known in the mid-1990s when they invented a game known as Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon, based on the actor’s appearances in so many movies. With the links defined as coappearances in any single film, Bacon could supposedly be connected to any other Hollywood celebrity in no more than six steps. In the network of actors, moving from the node of Kevin Bacon to the node of, say, Hilary Swank would pass you over fewer than six films. (In fact, it’s hard to name an actor who is more than two or three degrees from Kevin Bacon. Try for yourself at www.oracleofbacon.org.)
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SLEEP SHIFTSView larger image | During the transition from deep to light sleep, networks in the body suddenly join up. Each small circle stands for a measurement of a bodily system, and the lines show which systems are acting in concert over a four-minute period. From an interacting networks perspective, deep sleep is quite distinct from light sleep, which more resembles waking.Source: A. Bashan et al/Nature Communications 2012, adapted by T. Dubé
Small-world, or Watts-Strogatz, networks exhibit two features: They are highly clustered, meaning the nodes clump together like cliques of middle school girls. And shortcuts connect those cliques, akin to a cheerleader who occasionally hangs out with a member of the nerdy group.
Much like the simple framework developed more recently by the Boston group, the Cornell duo’s findings had implications for how a network behaves. “Systems synchronize much faster, epidemics spread much more rapidly,” Strogatz says. “In the case of game theory — where you have people, companies, countries playing prisoner’s dilemma — we were able to show that the small-world structure would make a difference in how that game evolved.”
But what really launched the Watts-Strogatz revolution was the way features in their model matched multiple real-world networks. An electric power grid, actors connected to Kevin Bacon and the nerve cells in a worm were all in on a secret that scientists had only just uncovered.
“The legacy is the introduction of the idea of looking at the comparative anatomy of networks,” Strogatz says. “What we were able to show was there were universal principles that applied to different networks that scientifically were completely unrelated but mathematically were following the same architectural principles.”
Almost immediately, researchers from diverse disciplines abandoned existing projects and redirected their intellectual firepower to develop network math for proteins, planes, power stations and pathogens. Friends, film actors and financial players also got their fair share of attention. Over the last dozen years or so, this flood of effort has led to a better understanding of how nodes of all types come together to form networks and what happens when one gets plucked out.
But work so far has focused mostly on the comparative anatomy of single networks. Surprising behavior uncovered in networks of networks presents a new and still puzzling question: Do the übernetworks behind blackouts, stock market crashes, transportation gridlock and even sudden deteriorations in health — a particular worry of Stanley’s — conceal a deeper shared anatomy?
Stanley believes they might. When he walks down the stairs, he has a habit of holding the railing. Breaking a hip, he says, could trigger a series of disconnections in his body’s network of networks.
It’s widely known that an elderly person who fractures a hip faces a greatly increased chance of dying within the next year, even if repair surgery is successful. What’s not yet clear, though, is whether the cascading behavior outlined by the Boston team is behind this abrupt decline in health. An answer may emerge as scientists find out what networks of networks in the body, in finance and in nature have in common.

Plumbing networked networks
Of all the world’s network-of-networks problems, climate change is one of the most challenging to untangle. How much global temperatures will increase over the next century depends on patterns of behavior in the air, the ocean, the land and among all the organisms living on the planet. Natural cycles are influenced by human-driven networks — the economics governing greenhouse gas emissions, the political drive behind energy alternatives and the social recognition of global warming as a problem in need of a solution.
In a recent study, physicist Jonathan Donges of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research plotted hundreds of thousands of data points related to air pressure to study networks in just the atmosphere. By tracking how the data changed over time, he identified a series of horizontal networks that wrap around the Earth, layering on top of one another like Russian nesting dolls. The Arctic serves as the link, acting as a sort of atmospheric border patrol that controls mingling between the horizontal layers, he and colleagues reported last year in European Physical Journal B.
“The Arctic seems to be important in coupling atmospheric dynamics on the surface and in higher layers up in the atmosphere,” Donges says.
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SAVING NODESView larger image | In a simulation of coupled networks in Italy (circles represent a power grid, diamonds a communications network), protecting just four nodes made a system less vulnerable. At left, all communications servers are coupled to the power grid; at right, four are decoupled. Colors show the probability that a node fails after 14 servers fail.Source: C.M. Schneider et al/arxiv.org 2011; Map: Geoatlas/graphi-ogre, adapted by T. Dubé
If networks of air molecules sound complicated, consider the network of goings-on in your cells, where the nodes and their links come in different forms. Within each cell of your body there is a constant dance among DNA, RNA and proteins. DNA encodes networks of 20,000-plus genes; at any one time many are being decoded into complementary strands of messenger RNA, which form their own networks as they guide the production of proteins. Those proteins can do-si-do with other proteins, interacting within their own network in a very physical way, or can connect with other networks by pulling genes onto or off the dance floor.
“You cannot look at these networks in isolation,” says Tom Michoel of the University of Edinburgh’s Roslin Institute. “Everything there is interconnected.”
Michoel tries to understand networked networks by studying small-scale patterns that show up more often than expected in a particular system, and thus say something about its overall functioning. Consider a common workplace pattern, in which an intermediary can serve as a point of contact between a boss and an employee. Michoel found many examples of a similar pattern in yeast cells. One of two linked-up networks included interactions that regulated gene activity, in which a protein (the boss) chemically tags a gene that codes for another protein (the intermediary). The other contained more direct protein-protein interactions (between the intermediary and an employee).
By looking at how the small-scale patterns clustered and overlapped, Michoel discerned that one boss interacts with one intermediary but that each intermediary represents many employees, sort of like a union spokesperson acting on behalf of union members. Without the übernetwork analysis, there was no way to understand the distinct roles of bosses and intermediaries, Michoel says. Important large-scale interactions would have remained hidden.
Exposing unknown interactions is not the only issue. Strengths of the connections linking networks are also important. The volume of buses traveling a route, for example, may ramp up during rush hour. Or in your social networks, you may see a coworker almost every day but a high school friend just once a year.
In his investigation of sleep cycles, Ivanov showed that changing how tightly two networks are coupled can affect physiology. Links don’t have to be newly created or severed to matter.
A former student of Stanley’s, Ivanov spent more than a decade collecting data on heart rate, breathing rate, muscle tone and eye movement to find out how the body’s networks interact during the various stages of sleep. Much like Donges’ approach with the atmosphere, Ivanov inferred links and the nature of those links by analyzing how measurable markers from each system parallel each other in time. His team found out how the networks hook and unhook, but also how those hookups vary.
Ivanov believes his problem, as well as other network-of-networks puzzles that show up in the body, is a bit more challenging than the ideal scenario tackled by Stanley and Havlin’s group.
“We could have failure even if a particular link between nodes doesn’t disappear,” Ivanov says. “We could still have all links present, but with different strengths, and the system can come to arrest.”
Such considerations inject further complications into the emerging field, suggesting just how much more there is to be learned.
Physicist and computational scientist Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern University, who studies epidemics and other spreading processes in networks, compares the current state of knowledge to what the Romans knew about Africa 2,000 years ago. The Romans had a pretty good map of the world, but they didn’t journey deep into Africa. “There are lions, that was the only information,” Vespignani says.
Right now, scientists have a map of the future of network science, and networks of networks offer an exciting new area, but people are only beginning to travel there. “We need to define new mathematical tools,” Vespignani says. “We need to gather a lot of data. We need to do the exploratory work to really chart the territory.”
Linked resilience
D’Souza of UC Davis has made early strides in mapping a landscape different from the one where the Boston team planted its flag. When she and colleagues became interested in networks of networks, they focused on success rather than failure.
“We weren’t looking in the realm of something so catastrophic that the node goes away forever,” D’Souza says. “We are more interested in a dynamical thing that will keep the network still working.”
In a recent study, her team looked at how two linked power grids might interact, say a grid that covers much of the eastern United States and another that services the West. She constructed links between the grids that are similar to the links between individual nodes within each grid: The nodes interact, but the survival of one doesn’t depend entirely on the other. She calls them connectivity links.
Each node in each network was assigned a capacity, akin to the load a power plant can handle before it becomes overwhelmed by that demand. Links represent ways for a power plant to hand off its load. If a plant can’t meet a given demand, it can pass some on to another linked power plant, which can pass it on to another and then another. As the researchers gradually add demand, like sand being added to a pile, they look for “avalanches” of load. Load will take off running across nodes the way that sand added to a pile will eventually start tumbling down the sides. Fittingly, network scientists call these avalanches “sandpile cascades.”
In analyzing the mathematics of these cascades, D’Souza and her colleagues showed that having two networks can help take some of the burden off a single network, minimizing the threat of large avalanches. “A little bit of coupling was incredibly beneficial,” D’Souza says. “The second network acted as a reservoir where the first could shed some load.”
But add too many connections between the networks and larger avalanches become possible, the team reported in March in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Connected power grids are a good example of networks that cooperate, says D’Souza. Adding power lines to one network may boost the transmitting capabilities of the second. But such networks may also turn competitive, if, for example, an improvement in one puts the other at an energy-supplying disadvantage.
D’Souza’s efforts have highlighted other flavors that networks of networks can come in, too. In your social web, you probably have overlapping networks, in which you simultaneously belong to a friend group and a family group. Or there may be networks in which the nodes are the same, but the links differ; think of banks that borrow money from each other in one network and invest in each other in another.
Then there are systems in which one network is actually built on top of another, the way hyperlinked Web pages sit atop electric, fiber-optic and wireless communication channels. These “overlay networks” also show up in the brain. Its physical architecture, the very anatomy of the brain, provides the structural network from which function — thought, memory, reason — emerges.
“Functional activity for me is more of a fleeting, fast-changing, difficult to characterize and for that reason much more ethereal construct in some ways,” says Olaf Sporns of Indiana University. Sporns is a major player in the Human Connectome Project, which seeks to understand how all the nerve cells in the brain interact. “The structure of the brain, the anatomy is something that, if we have good enough instruments, we can measure,” he says. “It is actual wiring.”
Brain scientists agree that the functional network must somehow be rooted in the structural network. But exactly how one gives rise to the other isn’t clear. What’s more, the networks feed off each other, adding the element of evolution to an already hard-to-follow labyrinth of nodes and links. The architecture sculpts, constrains and molds the function, and the function leaves experiential traces on the structure over time.
Sporns proposes that these dynamics represent a constant balancing act between the wiring cost in the anatomical network and the desire for efficient outcomes in the functional network. “This process of negotiating, and renegotiating trade-offs,” Sporns and a colleague wrote in May in Nature Reviews Neuroscience, “continues over long (decades) and short (millisecond) timescales as brain networks evolve, grow and adapt to changing cognitive demands.”
As the brain changes in time, so does the behavior of the body — influencing all the larger networks in which a person plays a part.
That can expand the puzzles facing scientists. Questions extend to how a network of networks reacts to what’s happening within, and how people adapt to the system, says Vespignani. “If I know there is a blackout, I will do certain things. If I know there is an economic crisis, I will go to the bank and ask to get all my money back. If there is an epidemic, I will stay home.”
Some scientists speculate that currently available theoretical approaches for übernetworks may be too simplistic to be useful. One economist went so far as to warn of the dangers of applying the Boston team’s results too widely, assuming everything is a nail just because you have a hammer. Most researchers, though, offer a more measured take.

Toward better systems
While physicists and mathematicians strive for simplicity, engineers like Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio of Rice University favor a more data-driven simulation approach, enriching tools from network science with realities from physical systems.
“When you have a complex problem, abstractions of the analytical kind can help you narrow down where to focus,” Dueñas-Osorio says. “Then you need to add refinement, make things more realistic.”
Both approaches — theoretical and simulation-based — have some real-world payoff. With equations that are mathematically tractable, “you can do a lot of insightful derivations,” he says. “Those are very valuable, but sometimes you only achieve those at the expense of simplifying the systems.”
Dueñas-Osorio and others instead build network models that pin every node into its proper geographic location and give each one a different likelihood of failing, depending on factors such as its age or activity level. Many of these researchers get their data on the ground.
During a trip to Chile after a 2010 earthquake there, Dueñas-Osorio collected information about what transformers failed and what pipes broke. He talked to utility companies to track service interruptions. “This information allows us to get a sense of how strong the connections are between systems,” he says.
Such data also reveal ways in which systems are suboptimal and could be improved. Some areas hard-hit by natural disasters don’t have enough connections — with, for example, only one power plant supporting a pumping station.
Efforts by Havlin and colleagues have yielded other tips for designing better systems. Selectively choosing which nodes in one network to keep independent from the second network can prevent “poof” moments. Looking back to the blackout in Italy, the researchers found that they could defend the system by decoupling just four communications servers. “Here, we have some hope to make a system more robust,” Havlin says.
This promise is what piques the interest of governments and other agencies with money to fund deeper explorations of network-of-networks problems. It’s probably what attracted the attention of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency in the first place. Others outside the United States are also onboard. The European Union is spending millions of euros on Multiplex, putting together an all-star network science team to create a solid theoretical foundation for interacting networks. And an Italian-funded project, called Crisis Lab, will receive 9 million euros over three years to evaluate risk in real-world crises, with a focus on interdependencies among power grids, telecommunications systems and other critical infrastructures.
Eventually, Dueñas-Osorio envisions that a set of guidelines will emerge not just for how to simulate and study networks of networks, but also for how to best link networks up to begin with. The United States, along with other countries, have rules for designing independent systems, he notes. There are minimum requirements for constructing buildings and bridges. But no one says how networks of networks should come together.
Ivanov hopes to develop a similar rulebook for the human body that shows actual designs. Many doctors’ offices display diagrams of the body that outline the different systems — the circulatory system, the respiratory system, the musculoskeletal system. But no diagrams show how those systems interact with one another, and that knowledge might be just as crucial for fighting disease.
As more data come in, the goals of those working on human-built systems and natural systems may merge. More important than whether biological, social and technological systems exhibit similar mathematical properties may be whether they should. Can people design better systems by learning from the systems that exist in nature?
Sporns predicts the answer could be yes. “These systems naturally, just by virtue of being here, actually having survived, have been optimized to a certain extent,” he says. “They are existing proof that you can have complex networks that are structurally buildable and realizable and sustainable, at the same time dynamically competent, resilient against perturbations and evolvable.”
How to maximize sustainability, resilience and evolvability in networks of networks are questions that are still largely open. Geneticists seek answers in the genes, physiologists in the broader body and ecologists in the interactions that govern all living things. Connections forming among these growing webs of knowledge, as well as with engineers’ models and theorists’ frameworks, will provide much-needed fuel for a burgeoning intellectual endeavor.
If the efforts prevail, one day preventing blackouts, interrupting epidemics and handling a complicated commute may be as easy as waking up in the morning.

Network catastrophes

While researchers have not yet analyzed them in detail, some recent real-world incidents highlight what can happen if disaster strikes within a network of networks.
© AP, Corbis
India blackout, 2012
Power grids collapsed in India earlier this year, leaving hundreds of millions of people without power. The outage triggered transportation failures as local and long-distance trains stopped running. Some sources speculate that the grid was overloaded because a weak monsoon had farmers using more electricity to pump water to fields.
Stocktrek Images/Richard Roscoe/getty images
Eyjafjallajökull eruption, 2010
Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted in 2010, spewing ash that shut down air travel throughout Europe. But travelers weren’t the only ones affected: Manufacturers, medical suppliers and crop producers couldn’t move their goods. The effects of the grounding rippled into the fuel, hotel and car rental industries.
Eneas De Troya/flickr
Swine flu pandemic, 2009
When a swine flu outbreak hit Mexico in 2009, officials responded with travel bans and other control measures. But a drop in international air traffic to and from Mexico didn’t prevent a pandemic. Viruses travel through a complex global mobility über­network that is made up of long-distance flights as well as local commutes, and interacts with social and economic networks.






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